Aviva Premiership Preview 2010 – Part 2

London Irish – More of the same unless Lambs turn to Lions

London Irish are probably where Harlequins will be in 2/3 years time, in the closing stages of their evolution. The personnel is largely the same with the key addition being that of Auckland fly-half Daniel Bowden, yet they are made stronger without the debilitating injury list they suffered last year. As ever it is their backs who will be the biggest threat lead by the thunderous Seilala Mapusua, flanked by Sailosi Tagicakibau and an injury-free Topsy Ojo attempting to get his career back on track. The hash they made of the Heineken group after winning away at Leinster, will serve them well going forward as will the depth of their squad. If Ryan Lamb has a breakout year then top 4 is not out of the question but the sheer competitiveness this season means mid-table and HC qualification is a more realistic goal. Prediction: 6th

Newcastle Falcons – Home is where the heart is for the cellar dwellers

How do you solve a problem like the Falcons? The continual chopping and changing of the men in charge has lead to a team that is permanently in a mode of transition and this is reflected in their inability to get the best from their players.  Like a snake they have again shed the heart of the team over the summer with Mark Sorenson, Adam Blading and Carl Hayman departing inevitably for better things. Their assortment of odds and ends signings doesn’t exactly inspire confidence but if they can turn Kingston Park back into the fortress it was, then they can turn the corner and avoid what looks like becoming a two-way scrap with Exeter at the bottom of the ladder. Prediction: 11th

Northampton Saints – Saints: A revenge play

No matter what anyone at the club says in the media, you can guarantee that Jim Mallinder and Dorian have been stewing all summer at coming so close to the final only for Sarries to pull the rug from underneath them. In doing so the baton and title of “Most exciting team in England” passed from Franklyns Gardens to the Watford club, so expect that narrative to come to a head come May. Saints have recruited with an eye on tomorrow, raiding Leeds for promising youngsters Scott Armstrong, Joe Ford and Calum Clark as well as Tom Mercey the Saracens prop, although all are very much ready for now. The biggest difficulty will be plugging the 2nd row gaps left by the departures of Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe and Juandre Kruger, both of whom added ballast, toughness and know-how to the Saints pack.

At the sharp end of the tight games, they were rudderless at fly-half and a time will come when Mallinder has to plump for either Geraghty or Myler and stick with them, consequences be damned as the current uncertainty undermined them too often. This fly-half situation will prevent them from storming Twickenham. Prediction: 4th

Sale Sharks – New broom sweeping through South Manchester

No nonsense southern hemisphere coach takes the reins at underachieving premiership club and talks of booting out players that are still in contract, changing the culture of the club and a three-year project?  It’s not Brendan Venter we are talking about here but much-capped former all black Mike Brewer who has promised, and begun in earnest, a shake-up at Edgeley Park. It was required after a difficult year for Kingsley Jones and Jason Robinson where relegation was a very real possibility until late in the day.

The scale of the squad turnover has been epic, and although Sale lost a third captain in three years, some real quality has been captured in the shape of Auckland and Samoa full-back Paul Williams, Leinsters Kyle Tonetti and should he ever arrive, the electric IRB 7’s series player of the year Mikaele Pesamino. The biggest capture of all, both in size and impact has to be Bourgoin prop Karena Wihongi, who alongside Andrew Sheridan and Sisa Koyamaibole gives the sharks pack a fearsome look about it. If 20-year old captain James Gaskell can learn quickly and the team gel, mid-table is a reachable target. Prediction: 8th

Saracens – Ten months from greatness

When you stop to actually consider the huge strides made by Saracens last year in terms of turning them into a team capable of winning the title, and then a team capable of playing such beautiful rugby, it defies belief. And they have only strengthened with the signings of one of the killer B’s Kelly Brown, livewire David Strettle and as if there weren’t enough Boers in the dressing room, South African bruiser Deon Carstens. Matt Stevens has also signed up for when his ban ends.  In Schalk Brits they have the best player in the league, by some way, and now he has the supporting cast that can hold on for that extra 3 minutes to lift the trophy. Prediction: 1st

London Wasps – Stretched resources in High Wycombe

Wasps will inevitably suffer this year due to the alarming lack of depth in their squad. Up front there is just about enough cover with long-term injury victims Phil Vickery and Tom Rees back to full fitness and Jason Hobson finally moving closer to a return.  Wildchild Andy Powell has been signed to add to a pack which will need to be exponentially better than last year where they were taken apart by all and sundry.

Behind the scrum the cupboard is bare. As good a signing as Richard Haughton is, he merely replaces the departed Paul Sackey and the combinations at half-back look disjointed. However, a back line of Simpson, Walder, Varndell, Flutey, Waldouck, Lemi and Haughton is still a frightening prospect. Solid rather than spectacular yet Wasps know when to peak. Prediction: 7th

Aviva Premiership Preview 2010 – Part 1

Different name, different teams, different kits, same old premiership. After spending most of last season on life-support, English rugby sprang to life to display some exhilarating rugby in the closing weeks of the season, which in turn was the platform the national team needed to clamber off the canvas in the final rounds of their 09/10 season.

It was a pretty remarkable renaissance. At times last year the Guinness Premiership resembled the reptile house at Chester zoo, with so little life and movement, spectators were asking for pulses to be checked. Steve Borthwick blinked in November and hasn’t opened his eyes yet. England on the other hand were like John Major on amphetamines, a great deal of nothing much interesting at all going on. The Buzz Killington of world rugby.

The tweaking of rules at the breakdown (again) however gave teams more confidence to give the ball some air and so this season the DoR’s promise us better, and boy do we deserve it. Even the most ardent fans winced at some of the dirge on offer. As a Sale follower I can confirm there was plenty of that.

This year the Aviva Premiership teams are almost uniformly stronger than last year, with only strangely enough Northampton weaker than last and even that is relative. The Heineken Cup entrants, Leicester, Saracens, Northampton, Bath, Wasps and London Irish will look to do some serious damage on both fronts, particularly considering the near-whitewash suffered by the English teams last year.

Even the relegation fodder Sale and Leeds have reinforced their packs, and Newcastle have absorbed the loss of the totemic euro-hoarder Carl Hayman with a number of astute signings.

For the neutral it bodes well, and for the fan, the new season always brings hope. Everyone has a chance, who would have thought Leeds would stay up last season outside the Kirkstall training ground? Not many. Here’s the club-by-club…

Bath – Old Money meets new money at one of the sports grandest names.

Cash rich after the takeover by multimillionaire Bruce Craig at the back end of last season, Steve Meehan’s men are once again looking to take that last step up towards the top table and the title. Last year they relied heavily on the outstanding Luke Watson, almost a lone hand in a back-row that pretty much no-one was scared of. This season they have sent for world-class reinforcements in the shape of the ageless Lewis Moody and the battle-worn Simon Taylor. Their success may also depend on whether Tom Biggs can fill the sizable boots of leading scorer Joe Maddock after a quiet year at the Falcons. With the wily lion himself Ian McGeechan sitting upstairs on paper they have all the attributes to be at HQ in May. Prediction 3rd

Exeter Chiefs – Is it the promised land or the twilight zone for the chiefs?

With the odds stacked up unanimously against them from the outset due to Premier Rugby’s self-preservation policy, the only way they could be more odds-on for the drop would be if they were made to play all their home games elsewhere. Having been promoted on the strength of their pack and formidable record at Sandy Park, it’s clear that only winning at home can set them free. Their squad is comparably threadbare but there is experience and not a little power up front in the shape of skipper Tom Hayes, Chris Budgen and James Scaysbrook. Sadly they are bereft of the quality required behind the scrum to gather them enough points to beat the drop. Prediction 12th

Gloucester – Groundhog day for the cherry and whites

I was tempted to copy and paste last years effort up here but integrity changed my mind. They promise so much but give so little in return. The hopes and dreams of the shed heads are dashed perennially  by the soft nature of their team. But perhaps not this year. In the shape of Dave Attwood and the massive Jim Hamilton, Glaws have an engine room the envy of the premiership. Coupled with the all-round brilliance of a fit-again Akapusi Qera and the nice blend of power and subtlety offered in the backs by the likes of Mike Tindall, Tim Molenaar, Nicky Robinson and James Simpson-Daniel and you have a recipe for carnage. Whether they can pull it together for long enough to seriously challenge remains a doubt but I have seen enough to think they will towards the north end of the table. Prediction: 5th

Harlequins – Chequered year ahead for the Twickenham natives

After spending last year in a self-induced coma in the wake of “Bloodgate”, the quins may find it difficult to re-awaken themselves as an effective force this term. They are a team very much in transition, with countless next generation stars waiting to step up: Joe Marler; Charlie Matthews; Joe Gray; Chris York; Tom Casson; George Lowe; Seb Stegmann; Sam Smith; Rory Clegg; the list is endless. If the starting XV stay intact, for every game this season then they may be looking at mid-table but that is unlikely in the extreme. Even with the second best fly-half in the world, Nick Evans, the hope will be that experience is ultimately the goal this year, and to not lose too many games so as to not bruise too many of the players coming through. Could be a rough ride. Prediction: 10th

Leeds Carnegie – Peace by inches for Back and Key

Last year Leeds shocked all but themselves by staving off relegation and even managing to vault over a shell-shocked Sale into 10th place. In the process they finally secured themselves the full slice of the lucrative (and delicious) Premier Rugby pie (funding), thus allowing them to fight this season on an equal footing with the rest (bar Exeter). Back has spent wisely, shoring up the pack with a revitalised Steve Thompson, Jesus Moreno, Miguel Alonso, and the canny kiwi Sean Hohneck. Lachie Mackay and Warren Fury bring some vibrancy to the back line and with Back and Andy Key at the helm you can guarantee they will be conditioned. But in all honesty their continuing success will again be built upon their heavy duty forwards. Prediction 9th.

Leicester Tigers – The Leicester juggernaut rolls on?

After peaking at the right time last year the Tigers will look to carry on the momentum gained into this season to prevent the early season results which made life difficult for them last time around. They lost at Sale on the opening day and they could only draw at home to the Ospreys which ultimately put them out of the Heineken Cup last season. It has been an interesting off-season for them with the deserting of Lewis Moody down to the Rec, the retiring of Harry Ellis and a number of signings, most notably those of  of George Skivington and Thomas “The Tank Engine” Waldrom, the rumbling kiwi workhorse number 8. Ultimately though, Leicester do what Leicester do and that is win things. It is the Heineken Cup which I’m backing them to take this year though as I don’t feel they’ll have enough to hold off the charge of Saracens much longer. Prediction 2nd

Look out for the rest of the predictions and stuff after the break. My fingers are sore…